2026 MAC Football Week 11 Game Preview: Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals

Setting the scene

The first week of Midweek MACtion delivered countless thrillers, including two overtime finishes. Buffalo wound up on the winning side of one, while Ball State dropped a heartbreaker in the other.

Both the Bulls and Cardinals have played multiple overtime games in MAC play, and another close thriller may be in store Wednesday night in Muncie. Surprises often happen when these two teams meet: Buffalo stunned an undefeated Ball State in the 2008 MAC Championship Game, while the Cardinals returned the favor against an unblemished Bulls team in 2020.

Game notes

• Time and date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN2
• Location: Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, IN
• Spread: Buffalo (-2.5)
• Over/under: 51.5
• All-time series: Ball State leads, 11-3
• Last meeting: Buffalo 51, Ball State 48 (November 12, 2024)
• Current streak: Buffalo, 1 (2024)

Buffalo Bulls outlook

Buffalo (6-3, 4-1 MAC) is the MAC's ultimate surprise team this season. The Bulls stumbled to a 2-3 start, and their only wins were one score survivals against FCS programs. But on Oct. 10, everything changed. Buffalo handled Toledo on the road, and the team has looked like a MAC contender ever since, carrying a four-game win streak into Wednesday night.

The Bulls have become accustomed to close finishes. Not only have they won two overtime games, but they've been involved six finishes decided by seven points or fewer, finishing 5-1 in such games. In fact, their 23-8 road upset over Toledo is their only multi-score victory in 2026.

Buffalo's offense is headlined by two stars. Running back Messiah Burch strung together five-straight 100-yard games from Sept. 26 to Oct. 24, and he ranks 16th nationally in rushing and first in the MAC with 901 yards. Burch can completely take over a game. He has finished with over 170 yards twice in MAC play, and his explosiveness is well documented — producing five 40+ yard gains this season.

The other offensive star is responsible for last week's win. Wide receiver Chance Morrow ranks atop the MAC in receptions (53), receiving yards (679), and receiving touchdowns (8). The 6'4", 191-pound receiver caught 12 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns last week, and he's at his best when the Bulls are in the red zone. All eight of his touchdowns were caught while in the end zone, operating as one of college football's top jump ball specialists.

Quarterback Jason Wright had never thrown for 200 yards prior to last week. But everything changed under the Wednesday night lights when he fired for 358 in the Bulls' 15-point comeback victory. With a 49.4 completion rate and a 9-to-6 touchdown to interception ratio, the efficiency can improve, but Wright is hitting his stride in terms of moving the offense.

Defensively, Buffalo is slightly below the national median, checking in at 79th in scoring defense and 80th in total defense. The Bulls held their first three MAC opponents to 20 points or fewer, most notably holding Toledo's 35.4 points per game scoring offense to a mere eight points. The unit is typically at its best after halftime, and the Bulls have only lost two second halves this season — 21-7 to Penn State and 10-3 to Western Michigan.

Buffalo's linebacker room had been laden with All-American talent throughout the decade, and it still features a likely All-MAC selection in SaVeon Brown. The team's leading tackler, Brown has stuffed the stat sheet this year with 75 stops, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, and one interception. Another star on this defense is strong safety Miles Greer, who offers 57 tackles, one interception, and a team-high five pass breakups.

Ball State Cardinals outlook

Ball State (3-6, 2-3 MAC) has certainly improved throughout the course of the season. The Cardinals won back-to-back conference matchups over Bowling Green and Sacramento State and had a golden opportunity at a third-straight victory last week at UMass. However, Ball State missed an extra point in overtime, allowing the Minutemen to escape 31-30.

The Cardinals have experienced two overtime thrillers this year decided by exactly one point. However, they don't have much close game experience otherwise, as each of their other seven contests were decided by 13 points or greater.

The biggest difference between the first half and second half of the season for Ball State is its offense. The Cardinals failed to surpass 24 points in their first five FBS matchups but have recorded 30 points in three consecutive outings.

Quarterback Keldric Luster has improved Ball State's aerial presence, and he needs just 198 yards Wednesday to exceed the Cardinals' entire 2025 passing output. Luster averages 185 passing yards per game on a 63.0 completion rate, but he also thrives as a runner. His 278 rushing yards rank second among MAC quarterbacks, and Ball State's offense is best when he's on the run. The Cardinals are 2-0 against FBS teams when he registers over 60 rushing yards and 0-6 when he doesn't.

The run game is also progressing thanks to Jalen Bonds' production. The 6'0", 215 pound sophomore produced a career-high 132 rushing yards last week, while contributing two touchdowns and five receptions in a complete performance. Ball State's backfield also deploys the MAC's rushing touchdowns leader in TJ Horton, who has three separate performances with 80+ yards and a score this year.

Another player who has become a frequent visitor to end zones is wide receiver Jamarion McDougle. McDougle has logged a touchdown in three of his last four games, and he ranks second on the team in receptions and receiving yards, only trailing Donovan Hamilton.

Ball State needs to continue to improve offensively, because the defense is still a work in progress. The Cardinals allow the sixth-most points per game in the FBS (34.8) and have surrendered over 30 points to six of eight FBS opponents — with Kent State (26) and Sacramento State (17) serving as the only exceptions.

The Cardinals struggle in both facets, checking in at 119th in pass defense and 115th in run defense. Containing the air has not been an easy task for the unit, which allows a 66.7 completion rate and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns — the fourth-most in the FBS.

Ball State has allowed conversions on 43.0 percent of third downs and 75.0 of fourth downs, ranking 116th and 127th in those categories, respectively. Another recurring issue for the defense has been penalties. The team was flagged 10 times last week at UMass and is the 12th-most penalized team in the country, assessed 73 penalty yards per game.

Ball State's defense is headlined by a balanced tackling effort, as eight different defenders boast between 33 and 46 tackles, with free safety Sterling Smith leading the way with the 46. Defensive end Ben Marsh has been another standout, producing team-highs in tackles for loss (5.5), sacks (3.0), and fumble recoveries (2) as the team's top pass rusher.

Prediction

Rule of thumb: if Buffalo is involved, it's likely coming down to the wire.

A tight game down the stretch means fourth down execution will come into play, and this matchup features two of the country's top-15 fourth down offenses. Additionally, the kicking game will be essential, as the Cardinals learned in their overtime defeat last week. Buffalo has a considerable advantage there at 15-of-19 on the season, while Ball State is 6-of-9.

Ball State's offense could see strong performances from Keldric Luster and Jalen Bonds against a Buffalo team that hasn't been consistent in limiting the run. However, the Bulls answer with the Messiah Burch and Chance Morrow combo, and not a single opposing MAC defense has countered both stars simultaneously. With the offensive edge, Buffalo prevails in a road environment, secures bowl eligibility, and remains in position for a potential MAC Championship appearance.

Prediction: Buffalo 35, Ball State 31