2026 MAC Football Week 3 Game Preview: Buffalo Bulls @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Setting the scene

You'll have to go back to 1900 to find Buffalo's last win over Penn State. But the Bulls provided an effective 30-minute scare during their last trip to Happy Valley in 2019, entering halftime with a 10-7 lead before an early third quarter pick-six sparked a 38-6 Nittany Lion run.

That was one of the better Buffalo teams of all-time, and this year's Bulls have a long way to go after a disappointing first two weeks. They'll give their best shot at Penn State, which has won six-straight games dating back to last November.

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
• Network: Big Ten Network
• Location: Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA
• Spread: Penn State (-40.5)
• Over/under: 49.5
• All-time series: Penn State leads, 3-1
• Last meeting: Penn State 45, Buffalo 13 (September 7, 2019)
• Current streak: Penn State, 3 (2007-19)

Buffalo Bulls outlook

Buffalo (1-1, 0-0 MAC) survived its opener against FCS foe UAlbany. The Bulls spent a significant portion of the game trailing but ultimately prevailed thanks to a late touchdown and a clutch stop on fourth and goal at the 3-yard line.

However, the Bulls weren't as fortunate in Week 2. They trailed by double-digits on the road at FIU for nearly the entirety of the contest, surrendering 540 yards of offense and coughing up three turnovers in a 33-20 defeat.

Buffalo did get one revelation from the debacle in the 305. It finally uncovered the talent of backup quarterback Jason Wright, who is slated to make his first career start Saturday. The original starter, Elijah Holmes, has been limited in practice with a knee injury. Wright led the Bulls' only two touchdown drives in Week 2, finishing 13-of-27 for 169 yards with two scores. Prior to last Saturday, he never threw a collegiate pass, but Buffalo had long been comfortable with him as a runner, inserting him into zone read based packages in 2025.

Wright has a clear No. 1 option when he drops back to pass. Chance Morrow currently leads the MAC with 106 receiving yards per game, and his five touchdowns are tied with three other receivers for most in the FBS. In fact, he is responsible for all five Buffalo touchdowns this season. The majority of touchdowns were 1-on-1 fade routes to the end zone, where Morrow uses his 6'4" frame and impressive catch radius to outlast defenders.

Buffalo needs a similar star to emerge at running back, especially since starter Terrance Shelton Jr. is out with an injury. Messiah Burch has received most of the non-Shelton backfield reps, and junior James McNeil Jr. looks primed to step into the new secondary back role, for a team averaging just 103.5 rushing yards per game (122nd in FBS).

The Bulls' defense was spoiled with All-American talents Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock in recent years, and they're still searching for the successor to those linebackers. That position still remains the strength of the defense, as the tandem of Stevie Bracey Jr. and SaVeon Brown has been effective so far, combining for 32 tackles and three tackles for loss.

Buffalo has been solid at producing first and second level stops against the run, and the team has 12 tackles for loss through two outings. But getting beat on the back end has been an issue. The Bulls field the 132nd ranked pass defense in the FBS after surrendering 386 passing yards and four touchdowns to FIU a week ago. Veteran cornerback Kobi Blackwell, who had seven pass breakups last season, is one of many defensive backs tasked with stopping Penn State's newfound vertical offense.

Penn State Nittany Lions outlook

Penn State (2-0, 0-0 Big Ten) is rolling through the start of the Matt Campbell era. The former Iowa State head coach has the Nittany Lions outscoring opponents by a combined mark of 72-9, and the only touchdown allowed happened in the final two minutes of last week's game at Temple.

Campbell's team is up to No. 14 in the AP Poll and eyeing a seventh-straight win overall and a 15th consecutive win over MAC competition.

The head coach's many Iowa State transplants have thrived in Happy Valley. Quarterback Rocco Becht has completed 75.6 percent of passes for 539 yards, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. The fourth-year collegiate starter has injected verticality into Penn State's offense which has previously absent. His two starts feature the two highest passing totals by a Penn State quarterback in the Nittany Lions' last 25 games.

Becht is also equipped with familiar targets in receivers Chase Sowell, Zay Robinson, Brett Eskildsen, and tight end Benjamin Brahmer, who all traveled from Iowa State to Penn State this offseason. But the biggest revelation in the receiving corps is the breakout of incumbent true sophomore Koby Howard, who already eclipsed his numbers from 2025. Howard has 229 receiving yards on nine catches, and his ability to get open downfield has shredded secondaries.

The Nittany Lions' passing attack is as strong as it's been in the 2020s, but the run game needs more improvement. Iowa State transfer Carson Hansen and Ohio State transfer James Peoples are the primary running backs in this offense, and they're still looking to hit the big one. Penn State's longest carry this season has spanned just 16 yards, and the team is averaging 3.9 on the ground.

Penn State's defense only surrendered nine points in its first two games. This can be attributed to the Nittany Lions' dominance against opposing passing attacks. Penn State currently allows the fourth-fewest passing yards per game at 105, and its challengers are only averaging 4.2 yards per dropback — also fourth in the FBS. Once again, the Iowa State presence has contributed with safeties Marcus Neal Jr., Jamison Patton, and Jeremiah Cooper among the team's top coverage specialists.

But just like the offense with Koby Howard, a returning Nittany Lion has been arguably the most significant contributor. Outside linebacker Tony Rojas has been an omnipresent force with a team-high 14 tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, and an interception. He is complemented well in the linebacking corps by Kooper Ebel and Caleb Bacon on a defense which has been largely immovable through two games.

Prediction

Simply put, there is a great disparity between these teams in 2026. Other than some failed red zone opportunities against Temple, Penn State has experienced minimal resistance to start the Matt Campbell era.

The Nittany Lions held overwhelming advantages on both sides of the ball against the Thundering Herd and Owls, and that should continue against a Buffalo team still looking for an identity.

Buffalo showed vast improvement over the course of the 2024 season under Pete Lembo, and maybe this game can spark a similar in-season turnaround. But Saturday likely will be a lopsided result at Beaver Stadium.

Prediction: Penn State 45, Buffalo 6