2026 MAC Football Week 5 Game Preview: Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Setting the scene

The slates are clean. It's the MAC opener for both teams in this battle of the birds.

The Bowling Green Falcons (0-4, 0-0 MAC) have struggled as many as any FBS team this year. Bowling Green is one of four remaining winless teams, dropping its opener against FCS competition and struggling mightily on offense since. The good news is Eddie George and Co. enter a new season, one where the team sits 0-0 in MAC play.

Conversely, the Miami (OH) RedHawks (2-2, 0-0 MAC) looked every bit like a MAC contender in non-conference play. Miami took 4-0 Cincinnati to the wire in a heartbreaking defeat but stormed back from a two-touchdown deficit against UConn for the program's fifth FBS non-conference win since 2012. But the story of Saturday will be how the RedHawks progress without their quarterback.

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN+
• Location: Yager Stadium in Oxford, OH
• Spread: Miami (OH) (-13.5)
• Over/under: 43.5
• All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 48-25-5
• Last meeting: Miami (OH) 28, Bowling Green 12 (November 29, 2024)
• Current streak: Miami (OH), 2 (2023-24)

Bowling Green Falcons outlook

It would be difficult to script a worse month for Bowling Green than September 2026. The Falcons are 0-4 and haven't shown many signs of promise. They trailed 17-0 out of the gate to FCS Tarleton State in Week 1 before falling victim to the upset. Then they lost to Nebraska and Iowa State by a combined score of 111-14.

Progress was shown against South Florida last Saturday when Bowling Green led 6-0 after three quarters, but the Falcons ultimately succumbed in 14-6 fashion. As demonstrated by that South Florida game — and really every game — Bowling Green cannot inflict any damage with its offense.

The Falcons are dead last in the FBS in points per game (8.3), yards per game (232), and first downs per game (13.5). They haven't scored more than seven points in a half or more than seven points against FBS competition. Bowling Green has come out of five of its eight halves without a touchdown and three of its eight halves scoreless.

It's been a twofold struggle through the air and on the ground. Bowling Green is 132nd in passing offense and 135th in rushing offense, generating just 4.07 yards per play. Jay Kastantin, who won a fall camp battle over Oregon transfer Austin Novosad, remains the starting quarterback, recording 303 passing yards over the last weeks. Bowling Green's offensive line has struggled to protect him, while also struggling to bolster the run game. Running back Austyn Dendy concluded 2025 with three-straight 110-yard games but his season-high stands at 60 through four weeks.

There has been one supreme positive for Bowling Green, and that's the breakout of Myles Bradley. The defensive end set a program record with 4.5 sacks in the South Florida game, showing off an arsenal of pass rushing moves en route to MAC Defensive Player of the Week honors. However, the rising star is doubtful for this MAC opener after getting a procedure done, per Eddie George. That leaves a different George — Eddie's son Eriq — in charge of sparking the pass rush against a team that thrives through the air.

Despite an effective pass rush, the front has struggled in other areas. Bowling Green is last in the FBS in run defense with 20 yards of separation, allowing over 262 rushing yards per contest. But the Falcons could be tested most on the back end by Miami's deep wide receiver corps, making the safety tandem of Kal-El Pascal and Preston EstoEsta — the Falcons' second and third leading tacklers — among the most important players Saturday.

Miami RedHawks outlook

Miami reached the MAC Championship Game in each of the past three seasons. In 2024 and 2025, it did so in spite of an 0-3 start. This year, the RedHawks figured things out much quicker, nearly upsetting Cincinnati and taking down in UConn in a stellar non-conference outing.

One reason behind the early-season success was the development of David McComb. The redshirt freshman never took a single snap in 2025 at Kansas, but he was thrown into the fire Week 1 and immediately adapted to the college game. He currently leads all freshmen with 1,121 passing yards, showcasing a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, Miami will likely operate without its promising quarterback, who has been ruled "very doubtful" with an upper body injury suffered in the UConn game.

Caleb Heavner, who led the game-winning drive last Saturday, will take the reins. Heavner was a two-year starter at Division II Fort Hays, bringing a semblance of college experience to the offense. He has demonstrated some mobility in limited action so far, although Miami would probably prefer to protect Heavner considering two of their five rostered QBs are currently injured.

Heavner has the luxury of working with a deep wide receiver corps, led by Lynel Billups-Williams and Maleek Huggins, and Damarion Witten — who each have at least 190 yards receiving on the year. Tight end Brendan Loftus is another emerging threat in a passing offense that has skyrocketed from 106th in the FBS in 2025 to 23rd this season.

The run game hasn't been as effective and not a single RedHawk rusher has as many as 90 yards on the season. But without McComb, that element could see greater usage, especially considering Bowling Green's struggles in containing the ground.

Miami hasn't been as strong defensively as the MAC Championship qualifying teams of past years, ranking 117th in total defense and 118th in scoring defense. The unit has progressed since Week 1 at Pitt, and it held UConn to seven points across the final three quarters last week.

The pass rush is starting to take shape with new starting defensive ends Grant Lyons and Zhaiylen Scott, and the RedHawks have been strong up front. However, they field the fifth-worst passing defense in the country. Not only does Miami need stops downfield, but it also needs turnover production. CJ Young's interception to set up the game-winning field goal drive last week is the defense's only pick all season.

Prediction

Even with a backup quarterback, Miami has a supreme offensive advantage over Bowling Green. The RedHawks' wide receivers should thrive against this Bowling Green defense, and no Myles Bradley on the defensive line could make life easier for Caleb Heavner in the pocket.

This game will end up on the lower-scoring side, given Bowling Green's offensive struggles and Miami's lack of David McComb. But the RedHawks earn a comfortable victory at Yager Stadium, as their chase for a fourth-straight MAC Championship Game bid starts at 1-0.

Prediction: Miami (OH) 24, Bowling Green 9