2026 MAC Football Week 5 Game Preview: Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

Setting the scene

Western Michigan and Buffalo are responsible for producing one of the most iconic matchups in MAC history.

On Oct. 7, 2017, the Broncos and Bulls found themselves in entangled in a seven-overtime affair — just the fourth in college football history. These were the days prior to two-point shootouts, when every overtime was a full possession starting from the 25-yard line. Perhaps the most memorable moment of overtime involved Western Michigan tight end Donnie Ernsberger's sister storming the field when she believed her brother scored the game-winning touchdown, yet there were still six overtimes to go.

Regulation ended at 31-31, but when the game was solified into the history books, Western Michigan emerged in a 71-68 shootout. It was the highest-scoring game in college football history until Texas A&M and LSU took the title less than 14 months later in another 7-overtime affair.

Fast forward to the present day, and both teams enter this matchup with 2-2 records, albeit very different paths to get there. But as these two showed nine years ago, anything is on the table when MACtion is involved.

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN+
• Location: Broadview Stadium in Amherst, NY
• Spread: Western Michigan (-14)
• Over/under: 46.5
• All-time series: Western Michigan leads, 9-2
• Last meeting: Western Michigan 48, Buffalo 41 (October 19, 2024)
• Current streak: Western Michigan, 4 (2016-24)

Western Michigan Broncos outlook

Western Michigan (2-2*, 0-0 MAC) suffered its first legitimate loss of the season last Saturday, and it was a reality check for a team with College Football Playoff aspirations. The environment in Kalamazoo delivered with its largest crowd in over a decade, but the play on the field did not match the energy.

Western Michigan was shut out for roughly 59 minutes in a 32-7 loss to Boise State, as its typically high-powered ground attack was stuffed by the visiting Broncos. The star quarterback and running back duo of Broc Lowry and Jalen Buckley combined for just 20 rushing yards and the passing attack only managed 110 yards on 28 attempts in an offensive struggle.

Non-conference struggles aren't unique to the 2026 Broncos. Western Michigan started 0-3 last year before winning 10 of their last 11, including a 7-1 finish in MAC play. The Broncos' success against their conference peers was primarily due to an unstoppable ground attack, and getting Lowry going will be a priority starting with Saturday's MAC opener. The quarterback attained 50+ rushing yards in all eight conference matchups last year and reached 80 in six outings, but in 2026, his season-high is just 40 yards on the ground.

Western Michigan also needs to jumpstart Buckley. The two-time 1,000-yard rusher eclipsed 65 rushing yards during every entry of the Broncos' six-game winning streak to conclude 2025. This year, he has only surpassed that total once.

Another offensive centerpiece the Broncos need is Aveion Chenault, who missed the Boise State game with an injury. Chenault's 217 receiving yards more than double the next closest Bronco, and he stretches the offense vertically better than any other receiver with a team-high 16.6 yards per reception.

Western Michigan also missed starting strong safety Micah Davis in the Boise State game. Under first-year defensive coordinator Greer Martini, the secondary has been the calling card of the Broncos. Four starters return from the 2025 MAC championship team, including safety Joey Pope and cornerback Josh Franklin, who are among the top coverage specialists in the MAC.

The secondary needs to increase its turnover production, however. Western Michigan has only picked off one pass all year when outside linebacker Dillon Moore snatched one in the first half of the opener at Michigan. Surprisingly, the Broncos are still a plus-4 in turnover margin thanks to the offense's success in taking care of the ball. But to further build upon that plus-4, a stronger pass rush is demanded. Western Michigan is averaging under a sack per game — perhaps the biggest difference between the 2025 and 2026 teams — and it will look toward defensive ends Austin Alexander and Scoop Gardner to apply more stress on Buffalo's offensive line.

Buffalo Bulls outlook

Buffalo (2-2, 0-0 MAC) is the only .500 or better team that has yet to defeat FBS competition. The Bulls scheduled two FCS opponents this year, and while both resulted in victories, they left more questions than answers. Buffalo survived UAlbany and Robert Morris by a combined seven points, and the opponents are only getting tougher going forward.

Slow starts have plagued Pete Lembo's team in his third season. The Bulls have lost first quarters by a combined score of 45-6, going down by at least seven points in every contest before getting on the board.

Buffalo needs to experience playing from ahead for once, which could alter the team's fortune. The offense wasn't bad against Robert Morris, and a quick glance of the box score suggests the Bulls won by a lot more than three points, out-gaining the FCS opponent 442-316, finishing 10-of-19 on third down, and controlling the ball for over 39 minutes. However, an 0-3 deficit in the turnover battle was the equalizer, and Buffalo owns the second worst turnover margin in the FBS at a minus-7.

If the offense can overcome this Achilles heel, it could be a respectable unit in the MAC. Quarterback Jason Wright has been an effective dual-threat option since taking over for the injured Elijah Holmes, delivering 140 passing yards, 95 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns last week. Wright is one of several dangerous runners on a team that's currently fifth in the MAC in rushing. Tailback Messiah Burch is fresh off a 146-yard rushing outburst, while Nino Hill added 64 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week.

The unit's ultimate playmaker this season is wide receiver Chance Morrow, the No. 1 jumpball specialist in the MAC. Morrow leads the conference with six touchdowns, and he caught all six while in the end zone. His 307 receiving yards rank third in the MAC, and he can turn 50-50 balls into 80-20 balls with his impressive hands and ability to box out defenders.

Defense has been a struggle for Buffalo, which is one of 13 FBS programs allowing more than 33 points per game. The Bulls have forced a slew of misfires, and their defense forces the seventh-lowest completion percentage in the country at 51.1 percent. But when those passes land, things get dicey. Buffalo allows 14.8 yards per completion and ranks 121st in passing yards allowed per game, with an unfavorable ratio of nine passing touchdowns surrendered to one interception.

Against Western Michigan, the line of scrimmage will matter more. Buffalo has enjoyed some success in stopping the run with 17 combined tackles for loss. Veteran linebacker SaVeon Brown, who played at Western Michigan in 2023, is trying to follow in the footsteps of former Buffalo teammates Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock. He leads the group with 26 tackles and has produced two tackles for loss and a sack as the new face of the unit.

Prediction

Western Michigan has been solid on the road this year, establishing the run game and dominating the time of possession battle against Michigan and Rice — two physical teams that also prefer to dominate on the ground. The conditions are appropriate for a Bronco bounce-back in Buffalo.

Western Michigan thrived with a one-dimensional rushing attack against MAC foes last year, and the Broncos will likely test that approach early in this game. Lance Taylor's team has also been a lot more careful with the ball, and turnovers could swing this game. Western Michigan responds to the Boise State loss with a commanding road victory, opening 1-0 in MAC play and extending its regular season conference win streak to six.

Prediction: Western Michigan 31, Buffalo 15