2026 MAC Football Week 6 Game Preview: Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets

Setting the scene

Toledo is rolling. The Rockets look nothing like a team adjusting to a first-year head coach and a completely retooled roster. They've won four consecutive matchups, staking their claim as premier MAC contenders.

Their next challenger is Buffalo. The Bulls are still searching for their first FBS victory and were as close as possible to getting that done last week, without completing the mission. They fell one yard short of the game-winning touchdown against defending MAC champion Western Michigan, proving it can compete with the conference's elite.

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN+
• Location: Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH
• Spread: Toledo (-21)
• Over/under: 54.5
• All-time series: Toledo leads, 8-7
• Last meeting: Buffalo 30, Toledo 15 (October 12, 2024)
• Current streak: Buffalo, 1 (2024)

Buffalo Bulls outlook

Buffalo (2-3, 0-1 MAC) nearly pulled off a statement victory against Western Michigan. Upsetting the defending MAC champions would have shifted the narrative of this Buffalo season and also provided the Bulls a 1-0 start in conference play.

Instead, the team only has two wins, defeating FCS opponents UAlbany and Robert Morris by a combined seven points. Saturday presents another opportunity at a statement.

Buffalo's Week 1 starting quarterback Elijah Holmes is slated for season-ending knee surgery, leaving Jason Wright in the QB1 role. Wright will make his fourth-straight start against Toledo, coming off an 11-of-18, 170-yard, 1-touchdown showing against Western Michigan. Wright is known for his mobility, posting 95 rushing yards in the Robert Morris win, but the Broncos kept him in the pocket. He took five sacks that game, and the pass protection must be stronger against a capable Toledo front.

The Bulls don't inflict much damage through the air, but they're getting in the groove on the ground. Messiah Burch enters this Week 6 battle fresh off consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Meanwhile, Nino Hill has performed well as a second fiddle with 104 yards across his last two outings.

The other name to watch on Buffalo's offense is wide receiver Chance Morrow. The 6'4" receiver is arguably the best jumpball specialist in the MAC, and all six of his touchdown receptions were caught in the end zone this season. Morrow is not only the MAC's leader in touchdowns, but he ranks atop the league in receptions (32) and receiving yards (397). Although, it is mainly a one-man operation, as no other Bull has more than 82 receiving yards on the year.

Buffalo's defense was exceptional last week. The Bulls limited a high-powered Western Michigan rushing attack to 115 yards on 37 carries, generating six tackles for loss in the process. Buffalo is known for great linebacker play this decade, and SaVeon Brown did his best Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock impression last game with a career-high 12 tackles. Brown's 26 solo stops currently rank first in the MAC.

Another standout on defense is strong safety Miles Greer, who is coming off an 11-tackle game. However, the secondary must amplify the turnover production. Only two teams — Army and Tulane — have fewer takeaways than the Bulls' two. One way to increase the turnovers is crank up the pressure. Buffalo is on the right track after securing two sacks last week, but it still only has six on the season.

Toledo Rockets outlook

Toledo (4-1, 1-0 MAC) picked up its second consecutive 15+ point win last week. The Rockets dominated San Diego State 41-16 to conclude non-conference play and then opened MAC play swinging with a 39-24 road dismantling of Ball State.

Toledo now returns to the Glass Bowl, where it has won nine straight, outscoring opponents 428-120 during the streak (an average score of 48-13). The Rockets have managed at least 41 points in all nine games, except for a 38-9 win over Ball State last November.

This revamped Rockets team can put up points. Quarterback John Alan Richter saw his first substantial action two years ago against Buffalo, providing relief for the injured Tucker Gleason and throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns on a 16-of-23 showing. That showed Richter's potential. Now, he's living it. His 1,362 passing yards and 13 touchdowns rank first in the MAC. Richter is going vertical, and he's not making mistakes doing it — only throwing one interception through 153 attempts.

Which receiver does Buffalo have to focus on? Take your pick, because Toledo has presented four different leading receivers this year, and three have enjoyed 100-yard outings — Adjatay Dabbs, Bryson Hammer, and Rico Bond. All three can be vertical playmakers, making this offense incredibly difficult to contain. Add Daryl Barnett Jr. and Terrell Crosby into the mix, and Toledo presents the deepest receiving corps in the MAC.

The run game has been explosive as well. CJ Miller is the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Week after a 196-yard, 2-touchdown explosion at Ball State. While Miller's 346 rushing yards and four scores on the season are impressive, Toledo's other running back has near identical stats. Connor Walendzak, one of the holdovers from the Jason Candle era, has 336 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and he regularly contributes to the receiving game.

Toledo doesn't have the top-10 FBS defense it had last year, but the Rockets have still been effective. FCS All-American defensive end Andrew Zock has been as good as advertised, producing 3.5 sacks and 6.0 tackles for loss as the lead pass rusher. Meanwhile, inside linebacker Isaac Zay has been the breakout star, contributing 38 tackles, 1.5 sacks, three pass breakups, two interceptions, and one defensive touchdown as the Rockets' ultimate polymath.

The Rockets have only allowed more than 28 points twice in the last 18 outings. When Temple scored 48 in the Week 3 overtime contest, Toledo's greatest struggle involved bottling up the run game. However, this facet has vastly improved in the most recent wins over San Diego State and Ball State.

Prediction

Toledo's offense is on a tear right now, and scoring over 40 points has become the norm in the Glass Bowl. John Alan Richter is the MAC's best gunslinger, and he has a talented arsenal of receivers to make life difficult for Buffalo. The Rockets are also getting better run support from CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak, making this offense extremely versatile.

Buffalo hasn't shown the ability to match Toledo's offensive output, especially through the air. The Bulls haven't scored more than 20 against FBS competition this year, and they'll need this one on the lower-scoring side in order to pull off the upset.

The Rockets defend home turf and claim their 10th straight win in the Glass Bowl. And it will look like the average score of the past nine wins.

Prediction: Toledo 48, Buffalo 13