2026 MAC Football Week 7 Football Preview: Buffalo Bulls vs. UMass Minutemen

If one were to look ahead at the Flagship Cup three weeks ago, one would have figured a MAC contender would play in this game. This weekend, many may be surprised to find out who the MAC contender is. 

Buffalo (3-3, 1-1 MAC) looks to build upon its new-found momentum in league play, while a reeling UMass (4-2, 1-2 MAC) tries to stop the slide after two losses in a row to conference foes after a blistering 4-0 start.

Buffalo can solidify itself as a MAC frontrunner with a win this after dominating Toledo. UMass can right the (flag)ship and take a huge step towards making its first bowl since 1972 by beating its northeastern rival.

Game notes

• Date and Time: Saturday, October 17th, 2026 at 1 p.m. Eastern time
• Location: Broadview Stadium in Amherst, New York
• TV options: The game will stream exclusively on ESPN+. A valid subscription is required.
• Buffalo radio: Paul Peck (play-by-play) and Scott Wilson (color) providing the Buffalo call on The Varsity Network App.
• UMass radio: Jay Burnham (play-by-play) and Matt Goldstein (color) will provide the UMass call for 101.5 WHMP-FM.
• Gambling Considerations: Buffalo are 7.5 point favorites; over/under is 42.5, per Covers.
• All-time series: Buffalo leads UMass 10-6 in the all-time series, winning six of the seven contests since UMass' promotion to the FBS level. UB currently holds a three-game winning streak dating back to 2022; UMass was positioned to win their first game of the 2025 season the last time these two teams met, but Victor Snow saved UB on a long receiving score with 19 seconds remaining.

Buffalo Outlook

Quarterback Jason Wright may have been inaccurate last week, completing just 14-of-31 yards, but he managed the game well against Toledo last week, picking up 171 yards and not putting the ball into dangerous situations to lead the UB offense downfield. 

After showing a penchant for turnovers in his first few starts, Wright has taken care of the football over the last 10 quarters, throwing 56 consecutive passes without an interception.

Messiah Burch is following in the footsteps of past great Buffalo backs with 489 yards in the Bulls’ first six games. Burch has run for over 100 yards in each of the past three weeks. Nino Hill (53 carries for 148 yards) and James McNeil Jr. (23 carries for 105 yards) add depth to Buffalo’s backfield.

Chance Morrow is one of the MAC’s best receivers with 34 receptions for 414 yards and six of the Bills’ seven passing touchdowns. No other Bull receiver has more than 13 receptions or 135 yards. 

On defense, rather than a star linebacker leading the way, a defensive back leads the Bulls in stops so far. Nickel Saveon Brown leads the Bulls with 49 tackles. Buffalo’s trio of safeties, Miles Greer, Ronnell Davis, and John Keough all make valuable contributions to the run game. Cornerbacks Mikey Crawford and Kobi Blackwell have been excellent in coverage, each breaking up four passes. 

Linebacker Zach Bergmann may not be as prolific a tackler as his predecessors Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock, but he also has four pass breakups.

Defensive end Logan Goodwin is disruptive on the edge with two sacks and 3.5 tackles-for-loss, while defensive tackle Cornell Evans (2.5 TFLs) anchors the middle of the line. 

Punter Ethan Stumpf has one of the strongest legs in the MAC. He is averaging 46.8 yards per punt on 37 kicks, with 12 sailing over 50 yards. Kicker Oliver Hautanen has made nine of his 12 field goals, including his sole attempt from over 50 yards.

Miles Greer has been efficient returning punts, averaging eleven yards per return on his six opportunities– though the kick return game has room to improve, as Phillip Folmar has averaged 19 yards per return on eight tries.

UMass Outlook

UMass will not only be without starting quarterback Pop Watson for the second-straight week due to an ankle injury, but also be out promising freshman Aedan McCarthy after suffering an injury late vs. Miami, per Jack Belanger of the Greenfield Recorder.

Logan Inagawa, UMass' third-string QB, was poised in UMass’ comeback drive last Saturday, completing all six of his passes for 83 yards and the last-second touchdown which set up the potential game-winning conversion. Inagawa brings substantial experience from his time at Drake; he threw for 1393 yards and ran for 398 in last year with the Bulldogs.

The usually consistent UMass run game struggled last week against Miami. The Minutemen ran for just 65 yards in 30 carries, with the RedHawks essentially forcing Aedan McCarthy to pass. Curtis Kimmons IV and Elijah Faulkner hope to get back on track against a Buffalo run defense allowing 151 yards per game. 

The experienced T.Y. Harding leads UMass in receiving with 28 receptions for 327 yards. With Joe Griffin injured the past two games, depth receiver Jabari Lewis has stepped up, catching 11 passes for 191 yards in his absence. Tight end Max Dowling is a reliable target in the short passing game with three of his 12 catches going for touchdowns.

On defense, linebackers Timmy Hinspeter and Tyler Martin are the top two tacklers. The Minutemen pass rush notched two sacks last week, bringing their total to 13 for the season. Eight different Minutemen have recorded at least one sack.

However, they were shaky against the run the last two weeks. Eastern Michigan and Miami have averaged 188 non-sack rushing yards over the past two weeks. This unit must prevent Messiah Burch from having another prolific day to alleviate pressure on its injury-riddled offense.

After Noah Kim dissected the Minuteman secondary a couple of weeks ago, the unit recovered nicely against Miami. Miami completed six of their 21 passes against UMass last week. TJ Magee broke up two passes while Isaiah Reed and Joshua Iseah each broke up one. In addition to the pass defense, safeties Kendall Bournes and Zeraun Daniel continue to make plays in the run game.

On special teams, kicker Derek Morris and punter Edward Phillipson are legitimate All-American candidates. Morris has made nine of his 12 field goals, including three from 50 yards. Phillipson is averaging 48 yards on his 21 punts, with seven going for over 50 yards. In the return game, opposing punters have kicked away from T.Y. Harding after his 82-yard punt return against Stonehill.

Prediction

Buffalo looks like one of the best teams in the MAC early on in conference play and has the advantage at quarterback.

Although Logan Inagawa has strong upside for the Minutemen, the team has other injuries in key positions. Buffalo should take control of this game early and force UMass to beat them through the air. The Minutemen will keep it interesting, but an improving Jason Wright at quarterback for Buffalo could be the difference. Nonetheless, last year proved anything can happen in the Flagship Cup

Prediction: Buffalo 24, UMass 21